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Saturday, February 5, 2011

The Superbowl

Let me start by saying that if I heard "Black and Yellow" or "Green and Yellow" on the radio one more time today I was going to lose it haha. Otherwise, I am extremely excited for Super Bowl Sunday; the party, the commercials and the game! Since this is a sports blog, however, I will write about only the game.

My pick: Pittsburg 27 - Green Bay 31
-There are so many story lines going on here, each one would be a full post: the redemption of Big Ben, the ascending of Aaron Rodgers to elite QB status, the amazing young phenom Clay Matthews (and BJ Raji), Troy Polamalu's return/battle with overcoming injuries, who has the better hair haha, a team that played their first four games without their starting QB, a team that has won five straight elimination games, and obviously AFC bs NFC...just to name a few. What I want to focus on is who is going to actually win!

For the Steelers, everyone knows what has earned Big Ben his reputation as a great QB: his superb ability to scramble, break tackles, find impossible seems in a defense at the last second, just do whatever it takes to keep the play alive and do what needs to get done, whether that's a TD, get in FG range or just get a 1st Down. He had something like 30 for a QB rating against the Jets, meaning he did just enough to get the job done (win). The problem: Roethlisberger must be one of Rodger's idols because Aaron is very good at doing all the same things. Green Bay's offense is also more capable of making big plays (Santonio Holmes isn't on Pitt anymore); the Packers are five solid receivers deep.

For run games, the Steelers clearly have the advantage with Rashard Mendenhall, who, although he is no Jerome Bettis, is a hard-nose old fashioned back that knows how to get a few yards after the tackle on a consistent basis. With Ryan Grant going down to injury, Packers first-year RB James Starks stepped up big and got hot at just the right time: the playoffs (rookies Bradford and Sub will be watching from home). While I don't think Starks will have a big game with it being such a big game and the Steelers being so good at stopping the run, I think he will establish the run enough to open up the passing game for Rodgers and company.

Finally, defenses. I think the old adage will hold true in this one that "Offense scores points but defense wins championships." I honestly believe the defense will make the difference in this one and it's not even necessarily about forcing the big flashy turnover (see James Harrison in 2009 and Tracy Porter last year) but more about stopping the other high-powered offense when it matters most. I hate to say it but this is Bill Belichick's forte: the "bend don't break" philosophy; you know the other team is going to get their yards but you make them settle for a tough field goal or when they're in the red zone then you force the big turnover and when you let up a TD then you play even harder the next couple series and give you offense a chance to get the points back. So here's how I see each team: the Iron Curtain can still stop the run like no other (I'd rather get checked by Ovechkin than take a hit from James Harrison) but Palamalu is a better blitzer than cover man and the Steelers pass defense can, and will, be picked apart by Mike McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers. While the Packers' defense is not as well known, they have solid CB's in the veteran Charles Woodson and the speedy Sam Shields, who match up well with Hines Ward and Mike Wallace respectively. Except Green Bay to play a lot of Nickle package to (1) counter the run and (2) get in their Pro-Bowl CB Tramon Williams as well. If you think a very good offense with a big-game QB, IN THE PLAYOFFS, will be too much for this defense, ask Matty "Ice" and the #1 seed in the NFC Atlanta Falcons how that went

Expect the Lombardi Trophy to return to Lombardi Ave, Green Bay, Wisconsin (address of Lambeau Field)!

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